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Joined 6 months ago
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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • China has a lot more leverage to increase this price. Export tariffs on US listed companies to US, and perhaps to countries that choose to further increase sycophancy to US empire. Prevent US manufacturing with more export controls.

    The problem with decades of propaganda/smearing is that too many people believe it. Bessent yesterday said “They only have a pair of 2s” as cards. No one in the room has not been programmed to “repeat that China is on brink of collapse for all of the last 20 years”. Hitler couldn’t win war because generals had to be loyal to every syphilis inspired thought of the dotard.






  • We should wonder if we want t be this dependant on one country for all our tech needs. I think the answer is no…

    It’s also by far the biggest market for those materials, and a massive scale industry there. The IRA did incentivize local supply chains for many materials, but the high ROI scarcity model in US, had many announced projects cancelled, and new administration’s love for fossil fuels and funding sources for tax cuts for the rich, threaten other projects. The reason projects were cancelled is that price, even after subsidy, would be horribly uncompetitive relative to China, and includes further uncompetitive processing industry requirements, that aren’t usually the same expertise as a mining operation.

    trade dependence is bad

    is something you can say only when global peace is impossible, but also when your country is the one that fully decides global peace or war. War is not a path for shared prosperity. Trade dependence can be very prosperous (PPP GDP is far more important measure than nominal). Markets usually function because sellers are not forced to hate buyers, instead of trying to usually be their friend.

    Far crazier than OP high tech industry suicide, is food and apparel. 1930s Smoot-Harley tariffs didn’t just amplify great depression, they directly led to global famine. Farming bankruptcies and low global trade means planting less, if surplus can’t be sold anywhere. No one will import avocados or apparel this week, and that has a bigger short term impact on lives.














  • follow up on this… xAI appears to have raised $18B in funding rounds. But November 2024 was at $50B, December 2024 was $40B. X’s ownership of xAI, caused its interest expense on high debt levels to rise to $1B/year (debt levels approaching close to $20B estimated)

    It is a major stretch to value xAI higher than the $50B peak. Chinese open source models released have depressed overall US AI stocks, and xAI has major cash burn in implementing its model, and Musk has ever increasing brand hatred culminating in government persecution threats to anyone who could say something negative about him or his companies that becomes propaganda fuel for actual damage to his vehicles/dealerships.