• 4 Posts
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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 20th, 2023

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  • Yeah I don’t think we actually disagree much here. :)

    I think my angle is just slightly different? I see that ease of access (eg cloud) make it possible for a lot more uncurious and clock-out people to enter the field and pass as competent. To be honest, even the modest introduction of auto-formatting editors are easy to see as good and useful, but I also feel that they allowed shoddy work to look passable at first glance. AI will make this a lot worse.

    But as for the actual people who have it in them to be competent, people that were always there and still are, cloud is not going to make them worse.




  • Yeah I can see that.

    However, you are now arguing a different point than I am getting from your original post. Maybe my fault in interpretation ofc, but the main difference (in my view) is:

    You say “incompetent” and “less skilled” as general statements on senior engineers. Those statements are false.

    You also say “missing the skills you are looking for” which is obviously true.

    And the implication that before cloud, people developed the specific skills you need more naturally - because they had to. This makes sense and I believe it.



  • That is technically correct in a way, but I’ll argue very wrong in a meaningful way.

    Cloud services are meant to let you focus less on the plumbing, so naturally many skills in that will not be developed, and skills adjacent to it will be less developed.

    Buttttt you must assume effort remains constant!

    So you get to focus more on other things now. E.g. functional programming, product thinking, rapid prototyping, API stuff, breadth of languages, etc. I bet the seniors you are missing X and Y in have bigger Zs and also some Qs that you may not be used to consider, or have the experience to spot and evaluate.













  • During the invasion of Berlin in 1945, the overwhelmed German command trying to map out the Russian advance had to resort to just calling businesses or homes of people living in areas they were uncertain about.

    If most people in a district did not pick up the phone, or someone did pick up and swore in Russian, they marked it on the map as invaded.

    Different worlds of course, but the point is that civilian phones have intelligence value.

    It could make sense as a super creepy tactical choice by Iran to deny intelligence gathering from abroad.


  • I feel that this article is based on beliefs that are optimism rather than empiricism or rational extrapolation, and trains of thought driven way into highly simplified territory.

    Basically like the Lesswrong, self-proclaimed “longtermists” and Zizians crowds.

    Illustrative example: Categorizing nannies under “human touch strongly preferred - perhaps as a luxury”. This assumes automation is not only possible to a degree way beyond what we see signs of, but that the service itself isn’t inherently human.