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Cake day: June 13th, 2023

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  • For over a decade, complexity scientist Peter Turchin and his collaborators have worked to compile an unparalleled database of human history – the Seshat Global History Databank. Recently, Turchin and computer scientist Maria del Rio-Chanona turned their attention to artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots, questioning whether these advanced models could aid historians and archaeologists in interpreting the past.

    Peter Turchin and his collaborators don’t have a great record of understanding human history themselves—their basic shtick has been to try to validate an Enlightenment-era, linear view of human history with statistics from their less-than-rigorous database, with less-than-impressive results. I wouldn’t necessarily expect an AI to outperform them, but I wouldn’t trust their evaluation of it, either.











  • Is it a simple error that OpenAI has yet to address

    Since even their own creators can’t understand or control LLMs at that level of granularity, that seems to go without saying. Although calling it an “error” implies that there’s some criterion for defining correct behavior, which no one has yet agreed on.

    or has someone named David Mayer taken steps to remove his digital footprint

    Sure—someone gained a level of control over ChatGPT beyond that of its own developers, and used that power to prevent it from inventing gossip about himself. (ChatGPT output isn’t even a digital footprint, it’s a digital hallucination.)

    A quick Google search of the name leads to results about British adventurer and environmentalist David Mayer de Rothschild…

    Oh, FFS.


  • It’s to be expected that an industry would want to study the safety of its own products—although it could point to the need for more independent research. What is a cause for concern is this:

    Another study published in Scientific American found that meta-analyses by industry employees were 22 times less likely to have negative statements about a drug than those run by unaffiliated researchers.

    That does suggest that the meta-analyses (as opposed to primary studies) are being used more for marketing than for product improvement.


  • Enshittification is defined as the gradual deterioration of a service or product brought about by a reduction in the quality of service provided, especially of an online platform, and as a consequence of profit-seeking.

    I think that’s overly broad in comparison to Doctorow’s original meaning (which they also cite in the article). The critical element missing from their definition is that the enshittified product/service never had a viable business model to begin with: it uses the hype cycle to sell users and investors on an unsustainable mirage before inevitably collapsing.